[ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
.Finally, if you are going down apath where most travelers fail say you are starting a new businessaccept the fact that your chances of failure are the same as the chancesof those who have gone before you.So it s a good idea to be preparedto be wrong.Expert IntuitionGary Klein appreciates that research into cognitive biases has revealedimportant truths about the way our minds work, but he does not agreewith Kahneman s distrust of intuition.He points out that Kahneman sexperiments were done in artificial settings with novices workingthrough controlled scenarios.Klein studied people in unpredictablesituations where life-and-death decisions must be made quicklyfirefighters, nurses, military personnel.He has compared the responsesof novices and experts and marvels at the amazing ability of expertsto make superb decisions in difficult situations.He concludes thattraining and experience should be used to expose novices to scenarioswhere their intuition fails so they can learn from their mistakes andincrease their expertise.So how do experts use their intuition to make decisions? Accord-ing to Klein, the first question experienced firefighters ask when theyarrive at a fire is not What do I do? It is What s going on? They haverich mental models of various fire situations, and they look for a pat-tern that is similar to the current situation.When they find a patternthat matches, it presents them with an option of what to do.They runa quick scenario in their minds to see how that option is likely to playout, and if it looks good, they go with that option.Then they monitorthe situation to see if the scenario is working and reassess if it is not.Finally, after the emergency is past, they replay the situation and learnfrom any mistakes, which further enriches their mental model.Klein tells the story of a lieutenant leading a crew fighting a kitchenfire.22 The fire didn t respond the way it should have something feltwrong so he ordered everyone to get out of the building.Just afterthey left, the floor they had been standing on collapsed into a flaming22.Gary Klein, Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (The MIT Press, 1998),Example 4.1.CHAPTER 2 ENERGIZED WORKERS 67basement.How did the lieutenant know that something was wrong?He had years of experience observing fire patterns and had built a richmental model of the various ways in which a house burns.This firedid not match any patterns in his mental model.He realized he did notunderstand what was going on and became uncomfortable being inthe house.So he had everyone get out just in time.When less experienced people make decisions in equally difficultsituations, they use the same approach.But without a rich mentalmodel of the situation, they have limited options to choose from, lim-ited ability to see potential problems while imagining the scenario, andlimited ability to detect when the scenario is not going well.The bestway to train these novices is to help them to build a rich mental modelof the domain by using mentors and simulations.A good way to make sure that novices do not develop into experts,according to Klein, is to expect them to follow standard procedures sothat they never make a mistake.For complex, urgent, threatening situ-ations it is much safer to teach people how to recover from mistakesthan to focus on making sure that they never make a mistake in thefirst place.Gary Klein says,  We put too much emphasis on reducingerrors and not enough on building expertise. 23Anna: So you re saying if I want to be comfortable that theright decisions are being made, I need people with a richmental model of the situation?M&T: That is correct.And you have to make sure thosepeople are in a position to use their expertise to make decisions andguide actions.Anna: But how do I know which experts to trust?M&T: Gary Klein and Daniel Kahneman agree that the kind of ex-pertise that can be trusted is built in a relatively constrained en-vironment that provides decision makers with reliable feedbackabout the results of their decisions [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]